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Everything Is Predictable

- How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World
Af: Tom Chivers Engelsk Paperback

Everything Is Predictable

- How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World
Af: Tom Chivers Engelsk Paperback
Tjek vores konkurrenters priser

SHORTLISTED FOR THE ROYAL SOCIETY TRIVEDI SCIENCE BOOK PRIZE 2024



''Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting'' Oliver Burkeman
''A remarkable book about a remarkable theorem'' Will Storr
''Witty, lively and best of all, extremely nerdy. I learned a lot and so will you'' Tim Harford

Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear.

Bayes'' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. ''Superforecasters'', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes'' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain.

Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes'' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.

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SHORTLISTED FOR THE ROYAL SOCIETY TRIVEDI SCIENCE BOOK PRIZE 2024



''Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting'' Oliver Burkeman
''A remarkable book about a remarkable theorem'' Will Storr
''Witty, lively and best of all, extremely nerdy. I learned a lot and so will you'' Tim Harford

Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear.

Bayes'' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. ''Superforecasters'', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes'' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain.

Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes'' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.

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Produktdetaljer
Sprog: Engelsk
Sider: 336
ISBN-13: 9781399604048
Indbinding: Paperback
Udgave:
ISBN-10: 139960404X
Kategori: Biografier: videnskab, teknologi og medicin
Udg. Dato: 25 apr 2024
Længde: 26mm
Bredde: 233mm
Højde: 154mm
Forlag: Orion Publishing Co
Oplagsdato: 25 apr 2024
Forfatter(e): Tom Chivers
Forfatter(e) Tom Chivers

Kategori Biografier: videnskab, teknologi og medicin

ISBN-13 9781399604048

Sprog Engelsk

Indbinding Paperback

Sider 336

Udgave

Længde 26mm

Bredde 233mm

Højde 154mm

Udg. Dato 25 apr 2024

Oplagsdato 25 apr 2024

Forlag Orion Publishing Co

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