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Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bayesian Decision Theory

Af: Marcel van Oijen, Mark Brewer Engelsk Paperback

Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bayesian Decision Theory

Af: Marcel van Oijen, Mark Brewer Engelsk Paperback
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The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader.
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The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader.
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Produktdetaljer
Sprog: Engelsk
Sider: 114
ISBN-13: 9783031163326
Indbinding: Paperback
Udgave:
ISBN-10: 303116332X
Kategori: Bayesiansk statistik
Udg. Dato: 24 nov 2022
Længde: 0mm
Bredde: 155mm
Højde: 235mm
Forlag: Springer International Publishing AG
Oplagsdato: 24 nov 2022
Forfatter(e): Marcel van Oijen, Mark Brewer
Forfatter(e) Marcel van Oijen, Mark Brewer

Kategori Bayesiansk statistik

ISBN-13 9783031163326

Sprog Engelsk

Indbinding Paperback

Sider 114

Udgave

Længde 0mm

Bredde 155mm

Højde 235mm

Udg. Dato 24 nov 2022

Oplagsdato 24 nov 2022

Forlag Springer International Publishing AG

Kategori sammenhænge